Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY continued to oscillate within its familiar 142.00–144.00 range Tuesday, briefly dipping to test the lower boundary amid disappointing U.S. economic indicators that weakened the dollar. The combination of a softer March JOLT report and deteriorating consumer confidence data for April drove Treasury yields lower, briefly pressuring USD/JPY toward session lows at 142.00. Although month-end flows temporarily lifted the pair off its intraday lows, options market positioning reveals that investors are increasingly positioned for further yen strength, with one-week risk reversals shifting notably in favor of puts at 2%.

Technical price action continues to favor a bearish bias, particularly with the failure of USD/JPY to sustainably reclaim the critical 144.00 resistance level, which corresponds with the April 9–10 lows. Immediate downside support is closely aligned at 141.54–141.68, representing the recent low on April 23 and the high from April 22, respectively. A sustained close below these levels would confirm a bearish breakout from the current consolidation range, potentially triggering an accelerated downside move toward stronger psychological support at the 140.00 figure, with interim support around 140.50.

Conversely, bulls need to reclaim and firmly close above 144.00 to ease bearish momentum and shift the technical outlook toward neutrality. Above this level, resistance intensifies at 144.55–144.60, marking key highs from earlier this month. With the upcoming BOJ policy decision and U.S. payrolls data on Friday, market volatility is expected to remain elevated, reinforcing options as a favorable instrument to manage risk. Given current leveraged positioning strongly skewed toward yen longs, any dovish surprise from the BOJ or a positive surprise in U.S. payrolls could trigger rapid short-covering rallies, making the 144.00 level particularly pivotal in the near term.