USD/JPY maintained its gains on Monday, trading firm as equities, oil, and the dollar advanced following renewed concerns about tariffs under President Trump. Market positioning remains mixed, with asset managers increasing their yen longs to the highest level since March 2024, while leveraged accounts continue to bet against the yen, expecting a hawkish Fed response if inflation remains elevated. Traders now turn their attention to Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony on Tuesday and the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday, which could be pivotal for USD/JPY’s near-term direction.

Technically, USD/JPY faces significant resistance ahead. The 200-day moving average at 152.77, the 100-DMA at 152.98, and the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 153.37 represent key levels that bulls need to clear to sustain upside momentum. On the downside, initial support is seen at 151.11 (weekly cloud bottom), followed by 150.93 (Friday’s low) and 150.25 (December 3 high). Bearish USD/JPY skews have eased, suggesting market participants remain cautious but are not fully committing to a downside break yet.

Looking forward, yen bulls may soon get another opportunity. Should U.S. CPI data come in hotter than expected, USD/JPY could spike higher, offering a fade opportunity for traders betting on a stronger yen. The market remains sensitive to BOJ rate hike expectations and haven demand in the event of a deteriorating U.S. growth outlook. If Powell signals concern over inflation, the dollar could gain further, but a weaker stance could accelerate yen strength, pushing USD/JPY lower toward key support levels.