GBP/USD briefly rallied post-payrolls but ultimately failed to sustain gains above 1.28, as key resistance at the 200-day moving average (1.2821) proved insurmountable. While the U.S. labor data supported Fed rate-cut expectations for December (85% probability), Fed commentary about a potential pause in Q1 bolstered the dollar, highlighting its relative appeal over the pound. Sterling remains weighed down by the absence of significant UK news and a predictable Bank of England policy outlook focused on gradual easing.

Technically, GBP/USD’s inability to break above the 1.2821 resistance reinforces the bearish bias. Immediate support lies at 1.27, with additional downside protection at 1.2665 (August low) and the critical 1.25 level. The lack of upward momentum and proximity to resistance suggest that downside risks remain elevated unless the pair can decisively clear the 200-day moving average. A sustained move above 1.2821 would be needed to challenge higher resistance levels and alter the bearish outlook.

In the near term, the pair is likely to remain range-bound, with attention turning to U.S. CPI data for the next directional cue. A weaker-than-expected CPI reading could offer GBP/USD a chance to regain upward momentum, while a stronger print would likely push the pair toward support levels. Until then, the broader dollar strength narrative and technical resistance will keep GBP/USD under pressure.