EUR/USD traded slightly lower Monday, declining 0.05% in quiet conditions as the U.S. dollar held steady. The pair faced headwinds from rising Brent oil prices, up 1.8% on tougher U.S. sanctions targeting Russian supply to China and India, while the absence of significant economic data left market sentiment as the primary driver. With Croatia’s presidential election offering minimal impact on broader Eurozone sentiment, EUR/USD continues to hover above critical support levels, awaiting directional cues.

The technical picture for EUR/USD suggests downside risks. Daily momentum indicators are easing, and sliding 5-, 10-, and 21-day moving averages point to a bearish trend. Resistance is located at 1.0312, Friday’s high, with additional hurdles at 1.0437, last week’s peak. Key support lies at 1.0212, Friday’s low, followed by 1.0195, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022-2023 rise. Option-related strikes at 1.0200 (€3.887 billion) and 1.0250 (€2.507 billion) may also act as near-term pivots, containing price action unless a significant breakout occurs.

With a light data calendar, EUR/USD is likely to remain range-bound, driven by sentiment and external factors such as U.S. dollar strength and oil price movements. A break below 1.0195 would signal further bearish momentum, targeting 1.0100, while a move above 1.0312 could open the path to 1.0437. For now, the pair is poised above support, but weakening technicals suggest any rallies may face significant resistance unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge.