EUR/USD Rallies to 4-Month Peak; Eyes Further Gains

06 March 2025

EUR/USD surged sharply to a four-month high of 1.0528, supported by lower U.S. yields and weak U.S. employment data which underscored growth concerns and boosted expectations for deeper Fed rate cuts. The breakout above the critical 1.0534 resistance confirms the bullish technical outlook following February’s bullish monthly doji candle formation.

Technical indicators remain positive, with rising RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands signaling further upside potential. Immediate resistance now lies near 1.0600-1.0630, while support rests at 1.0500 and more critically at 1.0450. A sustained break above 1.0630 would pave the way toward November’s highs near 1.0700.

Investors will closely monitor Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and Friday’s U.S. payroll data, which will significantly influence the dollar's trajectory. If data remains weak, EUR/USD could quickly target higher resistance levels, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Conversely, a surprise rebound in U.S. data may temper the current rally, potentially pulling the pair back toward key support near 1.0500.