EUR/USD remains weak, trading near the bottom of its 1.0473-1.0492 range, as renewed trade tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar limit upside potential. Trump's confirmation of tariffs on EU imports has added downside pressure, while geopolitical risks surrounding the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal further dampen sentiment. The EU’s promise of a swift response increases uncertainty, keeping the euro subdued. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain neutral, with the 5-, 10-, and 21-day moving averages offering little direction.

Key resistance stands at 1.0534 (2025 high), with further upside capped at 1.0630 (December 2024 high). On the downside, this week’s 1.0453 low and the February 19th support at 1.0401 are key levels to watch. Option expiries near 1.0465/75 and 1.0525 could influence near-term price action. While Bollinger Bands suggest rising volatility, daily momentum signals remain mixed, providing no clear directional bias.

Going forward, geopolitical risks and U.S. trade policy developments will drive EUR/USD sentiment. If trade tensions escalate, further downside toward 1.0400 is likely. However, if Fed rate expectations shift in response to weaker U.S. economic data, a rebound above 1.0534 could trigger bullish momentum. For now, EUR/USD remains in consolidation, with near-term risks skewed to the downside.