Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD showed notable indecision during Tuesday's session, initially falling to a fresh 13-day low at 1.0777 during Asian trading before rallying modestly into early North American trade to reach 1.0830. The gains proved short-lived as sellers quickly re-emerged, leaving EUR/USD virtually unchanged by the session's close (+0.04%). This intraday volatility resulted in the formation of a daily doji candlestick, underscoring the market’s current indecision and suggesting cautious trading ahead of key U.S. data releases.

From a technical standpoint, despite recent choppiness, EUR/USD remains firmly supported above the critical 200-day moving average near 1.0760/70. This continued resilience, coupled with a persistently rising monthly RSI, implies that the longer-term bullish bias remains intact. Immediate upside momentum, however, remains muted until EUR/USD convincingly surpasses initial resistance at 1.0830, which capped gains intraday. A successful breakout above this level could trigger renewed bullish activity, potentially propelling the pair toward psychological resistance at 1.0900, and thereafter the 2024 highs near 1.1000.

Bullish technical conditions are further supported by fundamental positioning data, as asset managers recently increased their net EUR/USD long exposure to levels unseen since late October, indicating confidence in further euro gains. Additionally, the German-U.S. yield spread, which had widened significantly in favor of the dollar since March 10, appears to have encountered substantial resistance around -190/-195bps, signaling a potential turning point. If this spread continues to tighten, bolstered by softer U.S. economic indicators such as weakening consumer confidence, EUR/USD could swiftly exit its recent consolidation phase and resume the broader uptrend, targeting levels above 1.0900 and potentially retesting 2024’s peak.