EUR/USD consolidated near flat, unable to leverage increasing odds of a Fed rate cut as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties overshadowed monetary policy developments. The probability of a December 25bps Fed cut rose to over 72%, yet investors sought safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and yen amid South Korea’s martial law declaration and ongoing French political risks. Concerns over potential Trump-era tariffs also kept euro bulls at bay, limiting upside potential.

Technicals reinforce bearish momentum, with the pair holding below the 5- and 21-DMAs. While daily RSI shows signs of improvement, the falling monthly RSI underscores sustained downward pressure. EUR/USD faces structural resistance near 1.0600 and the 21-DMA, with support at 1.0492 and further downside targets near 1.0450. A potential head-and-shoulders bottom offers a glimmer of hope for bulls, but the pattern remains incomplete, requiring a breakout above 1.0600 to confirm a reversal.

Key U.S. data risks lie ahead. November ADP employment and payrolls reports, as well as ISM non-manufacturing PMI, could drive market sentiment. Stronger-than-expected data would likely bolster the dollar, sending EUR/USD lower. Conversely, weaker data may provide temporary relief for euro bulls. However, until geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties ease, EUR/USD rallies are likely to remain capped.