Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analytical framework for evaluating market biases and risk characteristics in currency pair trading through the lens of the Sharpe ratio. By decomposing the traditional Sharpe ratio into its constituent components within the foreign exchange context, we establish a novel methodology for quantifying and analyzing systematic biases that influence trading outcomes. This research contributes to the existing literature by introducing a multi-dimensional approach to risk-adjusted return analysis in currency markets.

1. Introduction

The application of the Sharpe ratio in currency markets presents unique challenges and opportunities for understanding market inefficiencies and behavioral biases. While traditionally employed in equity markets, the ratio's adaptation to foreign exchange trading requires careful consideration of the bilateral nature of currency pairs and the inherent characteristics of the interbank market structure.

2. Theoretical Framework

2.1 Modified Sharpe Ratio for Currency Pairs

The traditional Sharpe ratio, defined as:

S = (Rp - Rf) / σp

Where:

• Rp represents portfolio return
• Rf represents risk-free rate
• σp represents portfolio standard deviation

requires modification for currency pair trading to account for the following factors:

1. Bilateral risk-free rates
2. Currency-specific volatility characteristics
3. Cross-currency correlation effects

2.2 Market Bias Identification

Market biases in currency trading manifest through several channels:

a) Carry Trade Bias:

• Interest rate differential exploitation
• Term structure of forward rates
• Risk premium decomposition

b) Momentum Bias:

• Trend persistence characteristics
• Mean reversion tendencies
• Temporal market inefficiencies

3. Methodology

Our analytical framework employs a three-tier approach to bias identification and risk assessment:

1. Decomposition of Return Components
   • Spot rate changes
   • Interest rate differentials
   • Transaction cost impacts
2. Volatility Analysis

• Conditional volatility modeling
• Regime-switching behavior
• Tail risk assessment

1. Correlation Structure

• Cross-currency dependencies
• Temporal stability analysis
• Crisis period behavior

4. Risk Characteristics Analysis

4.1 Systematic Risk Factors

The research identifies four primary systematic risk factors affecting Sharpe ratio calculations in currency markets:

1. Liquidity Risk
   • Bid-ask spread variation
   • Market depth considerations
   • Trading volume dynamics
2. Counterparty Risk

• Settlement risk exposure
• Credit risk implications
• Systematic banking sector risk

1. Political Risk

• Policy intervention probability
• Regulatory framework changes
• Geopolitical event impact

1. Market Structure Risk

• Electronic trading influence
• Market maker behavior
• Trading algorithm impact

4.2 Bias-Adjusted Sharpe Ratio

We propose a modified Sharpe ratio calculation that incorporates identified market biases:

Sadj = (Rp - Rf - Σbi) / σp_adj

Where:

• Σbi represents the sum of quantified biases
• σp_adj represents volatility adjusted for systematic factors

5. Empirical Results

Analysis of major currency pairs over the period 2010-2024 reveals:

1. Systematic bias patterns in high-interest-rate differential pairs
2. Temporal variation in risk-adjusted returns during market stress periods
3. Significant impact of market structure changes on Sharpe ratio stability

6. Implications for Trading Strategies

The findings suggest several practical implications for currency traders:

1. Bias-aware position sizing
2. Dynamic risk management approaches
3. Systematic bias exploitation opportunities

7. Conclusion

This research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and quantifying market biases in currency trading through the lens of risk-adjusted returns. The proposed methodology enables more accurate assessment of trading strategy performance and risk management approaches in foreign exchange markets.