Setting the Scene: Risk Rally Pauses at the Summit

Last week’s equity meltup stalled as gold clipped an alltime high and the dollar sagged into the Easter break. With positioning stretched and liquidity thin, Monday’s session is likely to serve as nothing more than a palate cleanser. The real test begins Tuesday when European desks reopen and macrodata firehoses turn back on.

Tuesday: Guindos Headlines Europe’s Return from Easter

European traders will have had four days to chew on US tariff drama and Powellfiring headlines. ECB VicePresident Luis de Guindos takes the podium midmorning; any comment that supplyside price shocks risk deanchoring expectations would tighten European swap curves and push EUR/JPY higher. Eurozone consumerconfidence numbers follow—already at a 10month high, they need another uptick to validate April’s equity inflows.

Wednesday: Global Flash PMIs – One Data Set, Three Narratives

1. United States – Resilience Theme: Consensus sees the services gauge above 54, cementing the view that tariffs have yet to choke domestic demand.
2. Eurozone – Fragile Expansion: Manufacturing is forecast to creep up to 48.6, still contractionary; the services reading must remain above 50 to prevent recession alarms.
3. United Kingdom – Divergent Sectors: Manufacturing expected at 44.9 (deep contraction), services at a healthy 52.5. The gap keeps pressure on Westminster to deliver supplyside reforms.

Markets will judge whether the US exceptionalism narrative still holds. A beat across the board could revive “riskon, dollaron” trades; a mixed picture would reward relativevalue FX strategies (long GBP/short EUR if UK outperforms).

Thursday: US Durable Goods and Jobless Claims – Tariff Damage Check

Durablegoods orders have rolled over in two of the last three prints. Consensus calls for a modest rebound; a third consecutive decline would cement fears that capex is retrenching under tariff uncertainty and could push 10year yields back toward 4.20 %. Initial claims remain rocksolid near 225 k, but any spike above 250 k would spark a defensive rotation into bonds and anticyclical currencies like the CHF.

Friday: UK Retail Sales vs. US Consumer Sentiment – The Demand Duel

The week concludes with a direct comparison of household momentum on either side of the Atlantic. UK retail volumes are forecast down 0.3 % m/m; a surprise beat would reinforce the bullish sterling narrative of rising real wages Reuters. Hours later the University of Michigan’s final sentiment index is expected at 57. Analysts note the rare juxtaposition: US consumers worry about importedgoods prices, while UK shoppers fret energy bills. A divergence in either direction will steer the G10 FX scoreboard into the weekend.

AsiaPacific Sidebar: China Holds Fire, Yen Watches CPI

Beijing’s decision to hold the loan prime rates at 3.45 % (1year) and 3.95 % (5year) underscores policymakers’ “targeted easing” stance The Economic Times. Investors instead monitor Sunday’s industrialprofits data for confirmation that March’s tax rebates boosted margins. In Japan, Friday’s Tokyo CPI is forecast to edge up toward 2.8 % y/y; anything above 3 % would revive chatter that the Bank of Japan may hike earlier, putting a floor under the yen.

CrossAsset Themes to Watch

• AI Earnings Season: Megacap tech guidance on AI capex could extend the Nasdaq’s outperformance and spill over into semiconductorheavy FX such as the KRW and TWD.
• Commodity Pulse: Copper’s rally hinges on China PMI tone; oil prices remain headlinedriven as MiddleEast risk premium ebbs after ceasefire rumours.
• Volatility Regime: Oneweek ATM vols in EUR/USD and GBP/USD dropped to threeweek lows into Easter; they are priced for a 55–60 pip move. A PMI or retailsales shock could easily double that.

Tactical Playbook

1. Short EUR/CHF on Soft Euro PMIs: Entry 1.0370, target 1.0280, stop 1.0430.
2. Long GBP/JPY on UK Retail Beat: Entry 183.60, target 185.40, stop 182.60.
3. Long Gold Gamma: Buy 1week 25delta strangle—vols cheap after holiday drain; exit before Michigan Sentiment.

Risk Radar

• Renewed talk of firing Fed Chair Powell could trigger a spike in US term premia.
• Another escalation in US–China tariff rhetoric would weigh on highbeta APAC currencies.
• A hawkish surprise from ECB speakers could flatten the SchatzBund curve and lift EUR crosses.

Bottom Line: The postholiday week delivers a concentrated burst of global PMIs, tierone US data and highprofile centralbank commentary. Directional conviction will hinge on whether US macro resilience still outshines a fragile Eurozone and bifurcated UK. Expect volatility to accelerate from Wednesday onward, rewarding traders who stay nimble and datadependent.