As global markets move into the third week of November, a lighter data calendar belies the importance of this week’s developments. Flash PMIs across major economies will provide a timely update on business activity, while central bank commentary and U.S. policy signals under President Donald Trump promise to dominate headlines. Amid concerns over inflation and slowing growth, this week offers an opportunity for markets to recalibrate expectations.

U.S. Data and Trump’s Economic Agenda

In the U.S., housing starts on Tuesday and jobless claims, Philly Fed Business Conditions, and existing home sales on Thursday will offer fresh insights into the economy’s health. Friday’s flash PMIs and Michigan consumer sentiment will round out the week, providing a clearer picture of consumer confidence and inflation expectations.

President Trump’s early policy announcements on tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration reform will carry significant implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. If Trump’s proposals appear inflationary, markets may price in a more cautious Fed stance despite recent rate cuts. Conversely, growth-oriented measures could fuel optimism in equity markets while maintaining pressure on the Fed to balance its dual mandate.

Central bank speeches from Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack will also shape expectations, particularly as the Fed navigates the interplay between fiscal policy and economic resilience. The dollar and Treasury yields will likely reflect investor sentiment around these developments, with heightened sensitivity to any surprises in Trump’s policy details.

Europe’s Data Drought and ECB Speeches

The euro zone’s economic calendar is light, with current account data, October HICP, consumer confidence, and PMIs offering a snapshot of the region. However, a packed schedule of ECB speeches will fill the void, with President Christine Lagarde making multiple appearances alongside Vice President Luis de Guindos and Chief Economist Philip Lane.

Markets will parse these speeches for clues about the ECB’s inflation outlook and potential policy adjustments. With inflation concerns easing slightly, a dovish tone could pressure the euro, while hawkish signals might offer support. The region’s PMIs will add another layer to the narrative, highlighting whether the euro zone economy can sustain modest growth amid external pressures.

UK, Japan, and Asia-Pacific Developments

In the UK, inflation and retail sales data will take center stage. Wednesday’s CPI and PPI readings will influence the BoE’s policy calculus, particularly as policymakers weigh the risks of prolonged inflation against slowing growth. Retail sales and PMIs later in the week will offer additional context, shaping expectations for sterling and UK equities.

Japan’s October CPI on Friday will be crucial as the BoJ faces growing pressure to address inflationary pressures driven by a weak yen. Machinery orders, trade data, and PMIs earlier in the week will provide context, with markets closely watching Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speeches for signs of policy adjustments.

China’s decision to hold loan prime rates steady reflects Beijing’s cautious approach despite growing calls for more aggressive stimulus measures. Property sector challenges remain a key risk, and any weakness in housing-related data could weigh on the yuan and broader market sentiment. Australia and Canada add further complexity, with RBA minutes and Canadian CPI expected to drive currency movements.

Key Risks and Market Dynamics

This week’s developments introduce significant risks across asset classes. In the U.S., the intersection of Trump’s policies and economic data will likely dictate sentiment toward the dollar and equities. European markets face a quieter week, with central bank rhetoric taking precedence over economic data. Asia remains a focal point as China’s cautious stimulus approach and Japan’s inflation dynamics come under scrutiny.

Investors should prepare for moderate volatility, with central bank commentary and geopolitical developments likely to drive sentiment. Markets may remain reactive to any deviations from expected policy trajectories, particularly as inflation remains a persistent concern across major economies.