China’s Monday Blockbuster

Beijing releases the full April activity suite before Europe’s open. Consensus sees industrial output slowing to 5.5 % y/y from 7.7 %, retail sales easing to 5.5 %, and fixed-asset investment flat at 4.2 %. A hotter print would calm commodity bears and help AUD, NZD and copper; a miss reinforces concerns that tariffs are biting earlier than modeled and pushes USD/CNH toward the psychological 7.25 area—often the PBoC’s tolerance line.

Eurozone & UK Inflation Gridlines

Final euro-area CPI (Wednesday) likely locks the headline at 2.8 %, but the market will mine super-core services for persistence. The ECB’s Financial Stability Review, published the same day, could amplify chatter on bank profitability under negative-rate scenarios and feed back into EUR/USD via rate-cut odds.
Across the Channel, UK CPI (also Wednesday) should slump from 3.3 % to ~2.7 % on energy base effects, yet core services remain sticky. If headline breaches 2.5 %, BoE-cut speculation revives, weighing on gilt yields and tempering sterling’s rally above 1.34.

Commodity Bloc Divergence: AUD vs CAD

While the RBA is easing, the Bank of Canada looks set to pause after last month’s back-to-back cuts, especially with headline inflation trending sideways. 
That policy divergence, plus copper’s technical rejection of $10 k/t, suggests AUD/CAD can extend lower toward 0.87. Still, watch Canadian retail sales (Friday); a downside surprise could shift expectations back toward another BoC trim in July, capping CAD strength.

U.S. Macro Mosaic and Fed Optics

Flash PMIs (Thursday) and new-home sales (Friday) will be dissected for post-tariff consumer durability. The University of Michigan’s inflation-expectations spike to 7.3 % already forced curve repricing; any repeat in the final print could reignite dollar bulls. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt to Aa1 continues to simmer politically; expect Fed speakers to sidestep fiscal commentary but lean on “financial-conditions tightening” as cover for patience.

Yield-Curve Narratives

Japan’s weak tertiary-industry data (Monday) and dovish BoJ commentary keep JGB yields compressed; should the U.S. 2-year rise another 10 bp on Fed-speak, USD/JPY could punch through 147 and flirt with 148.20 Bollinger top. In Europe, Bunds face a supply lull, so any upside PMI surprise could steepen the Schatz-Bund slope and cushion EUR/USD near 1.11.

Scenario Matrix & Trade Ideas

Other Movers: Buffett’s Bank Unwind

Separate from the CEO succession, Berkshire’s 13-F filings show Buffett has fully exited Citigroup, Bank of America and Capital One, dumping roughly $3.2 bn in Q1 alone. 
The de-financialization underscores Buffett’s stated wariness of margin compression in a high-rate world; bank equity bulls should not dismiss the signaling effect as mere housekeeping. In FX, reduced Berkshire USD-credit exposure marginally trims the conglomerate’s dollar funding needs, but flows are negligible versus official-sector demand.