USD/JPY is carving a bullish hammer pattern above its 100-DMA (146.51) and cloud base (146.80), with support reinforced by a double-bottom at 146.60. The pair’s resilience reflects rising U.S. yields, though yen buyers remain positioned for hawkish BOJ risks later this month.

Macro & Sentiment

• Fed Support: Decline in layoffs and hawkish Fed commentary underpinned USD demand, adding to Treasury yield strength.
• Equity Flows: Renewed demand for U.S. tech stocks further weighed on the yen.
• BOJ Dynamics: Market-implied probability of an October BOJ hike (~40%) is supporting yen calls. Deputy Governor Uchida’s upbeat tone reinforces speculation of a policy shift if leadership transitions align with Shinjiro Koizumi’s rise.

Technical Levels

• Supports:
  • 146.50 (100-DMA).
  • 146.21 (lower Bollinger).
  • 145.50 (Sept 17 low).
• Resistances:
  • 147.84 (21-DMA).
  • 148.03 (daily cloud top).
  • 148.29 (200-DMA).
• Indicators: Daily RSI is recovering from neutral levels; Bollinger Bands remain tight, indicating suppressed volatility before a likely expansion.

Strategic View

Bulls need a close above 147.84–148.03 to confirm upside extension. That would pave the way for a test of the 200-DMA at 148.29 and ultimately the weekly cloud at 149.45. Failure to hold above the 100-DMA risks a slide toward 146.20–145.50. BOJ communication is the near-term wildcard, with potential to trigger either a renewed push toward 149 or a sharp yen rebound.