The dollar staged a rebound on Thursday as traders adjusted to the absence of key U.S. releases during the government shutdown. With jobless claims and factory orders unavailable, attention turned to private indicators. Challenger reported September job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064, steadying sentiment after ADP’s weak report. Still, nearly 950,000 cuts year-to-date mark the worst since 2020, underscoring labor market fragility. The delayed nonfarm payrolls report leaves investors without the usual centerpiece for monthly direction.

Fed and Political Signals

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan defended September’s cut as insurance against sudden labor weakness but said cooling remains gradual and signaled no rush to ease further. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the first round of Fed chair interviews will conclude next week, with three to five names to be presented to President Trump. The overlap of politics and monetary policy continues to add uncertainty.

FX Market Moves

The greenback found support as major pairs slipped. EUR/USD fell to a four-session low, with technicals flashing bearish. USD/JPY printed a doji candle, reflecting hesitation ahead of BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks. Sterling broke its string of higher lows, raising risk of a bearish crossover, while AUD/USD leaned lower as fading RSI momentum on daily and monthly charts signaled pressure. A BoE survey added to pound weakness, showing businesses at their weakest hiring outlook since 2020 and inflation expectations at their fastest pace since early 2024.

Risk Assets and Commodities

Equities posted modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.14%, lifted by tech strength. Oil fell 2.04%, extending a four-day slide ahead of OPEC+ talks, while gold slipped 0.38% as dollar strength dampened demand. Copper rose 1.24% on supply concerns despite soft demand from China.

By the close: DXY +0.12%, EUR/USD -0.04%, GBP/USD -0.21%, AUD/USD -0.21%, USD/JPY +0.05%.