I. Context at a Glance

The first week of the new quarter delivered a classic macro seesaw: robust headline U.S. jobs, wobblier private hiring, hotter-than-hoped PCE, and Washington’s tariff brinkmanship. FX and commodity traders grappled with this cocktail, producing violent intraday swings yet modest net weekly closes. The overarching narrative: growth performs, inflation simmers, politics meddles – but market vol stays contained. 

II. Data & Developments (Chronological Bullet Ledger)

• Mon 30 Jun – Soft-Dollar Monday:
  • Core PCE 2.7 % y/y vs. 2.6 % est; consumer spending contracted –0.3 %.
  • Trump blasted Powell again, urging sub-1 % rates.
  • Dollar index slumped; EUR/USD cleared 1.1750 Fibonacci barrier. 
• Tue 1 Jul – Fiscal Bazooka Hype:
  • Senate green-lit the tax-spend package; ISM mfg 49.0 beat.
  • JOLTS openings blew past 7.7 mn. DXY clawed back 0.4 %. 
• Wed 2 Jul – ADP Funk:
  • Private payroll proxy down 33 k; yields dipped.
  • GBP printed 1.3787 high before gilt rout dragged it to 1.36-handle. 
• Thu 3 Jul – Pre-NFP Positioning:
  • Oil up 3 %; CAD bid, yen soft; overnight vol in USD/JPY jumped to 15 %. 
• Fri 4 Jul – The Payroll Squeeze:
  • Headline jobs beat; unemployment fell; wage momentum eased.
  • Dollar reversed earlier weekly losses; EUR/USD faded to 1.17-highs. 

III. FX Scorecard & Technical Musings

• EUR/USD: nine-day rally snapped; weekly candle closed with a long upper shadow – textbook exhaustion.
• GBP/USD: bullish trend intact above 1.3570 but momentum waning; RSI divergence hints at sideways churn.
• USD/JPY: coiling under Ichimoku base (144.6); break >145.5 re-energises bulls, slip <142 unlocks 139.
• DXY: 103.30–105.40 range persists; need CPI catalyst for breakout.

(Charts on pages 2 of each CMS Prime report vividly depict these setups, especially the inverted hammer on 2 Jul and GBP/USD trendline bounce on 3 Jul.)

IV. Commodities Corner

• Gold: Seven-session ascent paused at 1,348; overbought RSI argued for mean-reversion – which arrived post-NFP.
• Crude: Brent flirted with 87 $/bbl; OPEC+ pre-approved August supply bump of 411 kb/d, but physical tightness narrative remains. 

V. Rates & Credit Pulse

• Treasuries: curve gyrated yet net flatter; 10-year ended around 4.27 %.
• Gilts: 10-year up 18 bp on fiscal nerves; bunds richer by 5 bp after German CPI undershoot. 

VI. Risk Map – What Could Derail the Calm?

1. Tariff trigger-happy politics – deadline déjà vu on 9 Jul.
2. Data duality – any downside CPI surprise could reignite 50 bp cut chatter, simultaneously hurting the dollar and spurring commodity length.
3. ECB Sintra narrative shift – hawkish sound-bites may cap EUR rallies.
4. Liquidity vacuum – holiday-thinned U.S. trading can amplify moves.

VII. Trader Takeaways

• Short-term: Play mean-reversion ranges in EUR/USD (1.1650–1.1820) and gold (1,305–1,355).
• Medium-term: Keep USD/JPY carry longs but layer cheap downside optionality into BOJ July meeting.
• Portfolio overlay: Maintain gold as portfolio convexity; trim beta until tariff fog clears.
• Process tip: Continue volatility-scaled sizing; increase cash buffer to exploit anticipated post-tariff dislocations.

Weekly action testified that policy noise can still overpower data-driven conviction. Staying agile, disciplined and cross-asset aware remains the best antidote to a market that flip-flops between “Goldilocks expansion” and “late-cycle fragility.”