Gold Price (XAU/USD) Attracts Dip-Buying Amid Softer Risk Tone and Geopolitical Risks

30 يوليو 2024

The Gold price (XAU/USD) saw some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday but remained within the previous day's broader trading range and below the $2,400 mark. The weaker tone around equity markets, coupled with geopolitical risks from conflicts in the Middle East, served as key factors underpinning the safe-haven commodity. Additionally, the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September kept US Dollar (USD) bulls defensive below the two-week high touched on Monday, further benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.

However, the upside for Gold is likely to remain capped as traders await more cues about the Fed's policy path before committing to a firm near-term direction. The focus will thus be on the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Alongside this, important US macro data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, will influence USD price dynamics and, consequently, XAU/USD. It seems prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the recent pullback from the all-time peak has run its course.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Attracts Haven Flows Amid Softer Risk Tone The US Dollar shot to a two-and-a-half-week high on Monday. Despite this, along with a positive risk tone, Gold failed to build on last week's modest bounce from around the $2,350 level.

Further evidence of easing price pressures in the US has reinforced market bets for an imminent start of the Fed's policy easing cycle in September, keeping US Treasury bond yields depressed. The yield on the rate-sensitive 2-year US government bond fell to its lowest since February 2, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained near a one-month low amid the improving inflation landscape. This should cap any further upside for the USD and provide a tailwind for Gold as traders look ahead to this week's key central bank events for meaningful impetus.

The Bank of Japan and the Fed are set to announce their respective policy decisions at the end of their two-day meetings on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England's policy update on Thursday. Investors will also face key macroeconomic releases, including official Chinese PMIs, Eurozone consumer inflation figures, and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Technical Analysis: Gold Price Might Struggle Above $2,400 Mark From a technical perspective, Gold's overnight failure to sustain above the $2,400 mark and subsequent downtick warrants caution before positioning for further upside. Oscillators on the daily chart have started to gain negative traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance for Gold is to the downside. Bearish traders should wait for a sustained break below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently near the $2,358 region, before placing fresh bets.

Further selling below last week's swing low around $2,352 would reaffirm the negative outlook, potentially dragging XAU/USD to the next support near the $2,324 area. The downward trajectory could extend further, testing the $2,290 round-figure mark for the first time since late June.

Conversely, momentum above the $2,400 mark could face resistance near the $2,415 area, ahead of last week's swing high around $2,437. Sustained strength beyond this level would suggest that the corrective decline from the all-time peak touched earlier this month has ended, setting the stage for additional gains. The Gold price might then climb to the $2,470-2,475 intermediate resistance and challenge the record peak around the $2,480-2,491 zone.

 

 

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