التحليل الفني

GBP/USD struggled to sustain gains on Wednesday, as heightened geopolitical tensions overshadowed the UK CPI surprise. Reports of Ukraine firing UK missiles into Russia triggered a fresh wave of selling, sending the pair toward key support at 1.26. While sterling showed relative strength against the euro, its performance against the dollar was weighed down by safe-haven flows. The inflation data, particularly services CPI meeting BoE projections, had little impact on policy expectations, leaving the focus squarely on external factors. This reinforces the perception that the Bank of England remains on a measured path toward rate cuts.

EUR/USD saw a mixed session on Tuesday, driven by geopolitical headlines and yield spread dynamics. Reports of Ukraine targeting a Russian military complex with U.S.-provided missiles initially pushed the pair lower. However, the prospect of limited escalation allowed EUR/USD to recover, with traders refocusing on the narrowing yield and interest rate differentials. The tightening of German-U.S. 2-year spreads to their closest levels since early November reflects a shift in investor expectations, with the Fed's terminal rate now seen lower. This has bolstered EUR/USD, stemming the decline triggered by earlier widening spreads. From a technical perspective, the support at 1.0450/1.0500 remains pivotal, as it aligns with multi-month lows and represents a psychological barrier for shorts. The tightening in yield spreads and improved sentiment have reduced the probability of a sustained breakdown below these levels. Resistance lies at 1.0600, with stronger barriers near the 21-day moving average at 1.0650. A breakout above these levels could signal a reversal in bearish momentum, supported by potential euro zone data surprises. The upcoming November euro zone PMI will be crucial for shaping rate expectations and EUR/USD’s near-term direction. If the data suggests economic stabilization or recovery in Europe, further spread tightening could trigger a short squeeze, pushing EUR/USD higher. However, lingering geopolitical risks and weaker-than-expected data could see the pair retest key support levels, keeping traders cautious in the coming sessions.

EUR/USD rallied on Monday, advancing 0.51% to a three-session high of 1.0595 as falling U.S. yields tightened German-U.S. spreads, and risk-on sentiment drove the U.S. dollar lower. The pair’s recovery above its 5-day moving average and rising RSI are early signs of bullish potential, but structural challenges related to euro area growth and ECB policy could limit further gains. The session’s positive momentum was underpinned by a decline in USD/CNH and a rally in gold and equities, reflecting broader dollar weakness. Upcoming euro area November PMIs are expected to influence sentiment significantly, with markets closely watching Germany and France for signs of economic resilience or deterioration. ECB policymakers, including de Guindos and Nagel, highlighted risks to growth from potential U.S. tariffs, suggesting the central bank may lean towards deeper rate cuts if economic conditions worsen. Short-term rates markets are already pricing in a 25bps ECB cut by year-end, but weaker-than-expected PMIs could prompt a reevaluation of the terminal rate, pressuring EUR/USD lower. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD’s immediate resistance lies at 1.0600, followed by stronger hurdles near the 21-day moving average at 1.0635. On the downside, options market positioning suggests traders are bracing for a potential drop below 1.0450, with risk reversals heavily favoring euro puts. A break below key support could accelerate selling towards parity, especially if euro area data continues to falter, while the Fed maintains a comparatively hawkish stance.

USD/JPY saw volatile trading on Monday, oscillating between 153.84 and 155.14, as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda refrained from providing clear guidance on a potential December rate hike, emphasizing the BOJ’s data-driven approach. The market remains thin, with significant focus on nearby option expiries at 154.50 ($450 million) and 156.00 ($320 million), which may cap excessive movement in either direction. Despite Friday's strong verbal intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials, no follow-up actions were observed, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the yen. On the technical front, USD/JPY faces immediate support at 153.84/86, where today’s and Friday’s lows coincide with the daily Ichimoku tenkan line at 154.03. Resistance is visible at 155.13-155.19, defined by the hourly kijun and 100-hour moving average. A move above the Ichimoku cloud (155.55-156.22) would signal further bullish momentum, while a drop below 153.84 could see the pair testing the ascending 200-HMA at 154.30 or even lower levels. Traders are eyeing upcoming Japanese core machinery orders data for September and October metrics for clues about the domestic recovery. U.S. Treasury yields, which have eased slightly from Friday’s highs, will also influence near-term direction. While the absence of immediate intervention leaves USD/JPY exposed to upside risks, sustained resistance at key technical levels and cautious BOJ messaging could keep the pair within its current range.

Sterling found support on Thursday after an initial drop, with GBP/USD trading nearly flat in the New York session at 1.27. The early slide to 1.2630 overnight was tempered as U.S. Treasury yields pulled back, limiting the appeal of the dollar. Market focus remains on Trump-driven trades, but recent technical resilience and a comparatively higher UK rate outlook for 2025 compared to the Fed’s IRPR may slow sterling’s downward momentum. With year-end approaching, GBP bears face an essential question: How low can sterling go before encountering firmer buying interest? On the technical side, GBP/USD is seeing support at 1.2679, supported by the rising 10-hour moving average. The Thursday low of 1.2630 and the June 27 low at 1.2613 provide additional floor levels. On the upside, resistance lies at Thursday’s daily high of 1.2720, with further resistance from the lower 30-day Bollinger Band at 1.2757 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2820. These levels represent potential hurdles for sterling’s recovery. Looking ahead, as Trump-related USD demand may begin to wane, GBP/USD could find opportunities to rebound from these support levels. The UK’s relatively hawkish rate expectations into 2025 may also serve as a tailwind for GBP in the medium term, especially if the dollar loses steam approaching year-end.

The USD/JPY pair surged to a new high of 155.625 on Wednesday, driven by strong dollar momentum and resilient U.S. yields. Following hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who highlighted economic resilience and ongoing inflation concerns, the market now sees the Fed funds rate potentially near neutral. These remarks follow similar optimism from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, underscoring a “Goldilocks” scenario for the U.S. economy, where growth and inflation are balanced, supporting Treasury yields and risk sentiment. As a result, USD/JPY has moved decisively upward, with minimal risk of intervention from Japanese authorities as the pair nears the 155 level.

GBP/USD extended its losses on Tuesday, breaking below the 200-day moving average at 1.2819, a critical support level that has now turned resistance. The pair dropped to a session low of 1.2719, trading down 1.04% late in the NY session. This move has heightened bearish sentiment, with the break below 1.2819 signaling further potential for downside. Market positioning data from the IMM reveals a long bias in sterling, but recent price action suggests that many of those positions are likely being unwound as sterling bulls face increasing pressure.

EUR/USD has broken to a 7-month low, and downside risks are likely to persist as market focus shifts toward the possibility of deeper ECB rate cuts. Expectations for the ECB to adopt a more dovish policy stance stem from rising concerns over economic pressures within Europe and abroad. President-elect Donald Trump’s likely hawkish trade stance, especially if a hard-liner takes the role of U.S. trade representative, has kept EUR/USD under pressure. Additionally, China’s upcoming CPI and PPI data could underscore a sluggish economic recovery, posing risks to European growth, especially as German elections loom, adding further uncertainty.

USD/JPY’s recent failure to break above the 155 pivot level has emboldened yen bulls, especially as political developments in Japan and potential policy rate convergence between the U.S. and Japan create a favorable backdrop for the yen. Currently trading above its 200-day moving average at 151.69, USD/JPY remains in a precarious position, with bears eyeing further downside if the pair cannot sustain this support. A wave of Japanese repatriation flows, including $29.2 billion in foreign bond sales and $7.7 billion in equity sales, has added a fresh tailwind to the yen. Speculation around Japanese authorities intervening to stabilize the yen also continues to bolster yen sentiment.

EUR/USD posted a modest rally on Thursday, moving higher as weaker U.S. Treasury yields and narrowing DE-US spreads initially favored the euro. However, EUR/USD gains were constrained by the broader challenges facing Germany’s economy and political landscape. September’s drop in German industrial output has heightened recession concerns in the euro area, while the unexpected collapse of Germany’s coalition government has introduced political uncertainty that could lead to a confidence vote and potential elections early next year. These developments, combined with concerns over trade tensions after President-elect Trump’s inauguration, may pressure the ECB to adopt a more aggressive easing stance.