EUR/USD Trades Higher as Lower U.S. Yields Weigh on Dollar; Eyes on Upcoming U.S. Data

11 يوليو 2024

EUR/USD traded higher on Wednesday, buoyed by lower U.S. yields that pressured the dollar. This price action supports bullish technical signals, but confirmation will likely depend on upcoming U.S. pricing and employment reports. Daily charts show that gains off the June 26 low are consolidating, with EUR/USD trading above several daily moving averages and near the top of the daily cloud. Monthly and daily RSIs are rising but not yet overbought, indicating that upward momentum remains strong. With bullish technicals suggesting further upside potential, EUR/USD longs now await supportive U.S. data.

Key data releases include June CPI and PPI, as well as weekly jobless claims. If the pricing data indicates that disinflation is taking hold and the Fed's inflation target is approaching, and if the jobless claims suggest a weakening job market, EUR/USD's rally could resume. In this scenario, U.S. yields may fall further, putting additional pressure on the dollar. The dollar's yield advantage over the euro could erode as German-U.S. spreads tighten, potentially allowing EUR/USD to test the 1.0980/1.1000 resistance levels.

In New York, EUR/USD opened near 1.0820 after trading at 1.0811 overnight on EBS. The rally extended slightly on the back of softer U.S. yields and a weaker dollar, with EUR/USD trading up to 1.0829. A rally in EUR/JPY to a record high of 175.065 also helped buoy EUR/USD, alongside gains in gold and equity markets. The pair pulled back slightly, nearing 1.0825 late in the session but still up 0.10%. Technically, the outlook remains bullish, with rising RSIs and the pair trading above the 200-day moving average, indicating ongoing consolidation.