Macro Outlook

12 أغسطس 2024

The market was influenced by a mix of economic data, central bank expectations, and risk sentiment adjustments as the week progressed. The USD index saw a slight dip of 0.18% to 103.12 by the North American afternoon session, easing from Monday's low of 102.31. This decline comes despite a stronger footing earlier in the week, as recent U.S. economic data helped alleviate concerns of an imminent recession following weaker-than-expected payroll numbers. The market has adjusted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the latest data from LSEG's IRPR indicating only slightly more than four 25bp rate cuts by year-end, down from the over five cuts anticipated after the payroll report. Meanwhile, stocks managed to end the week on a positive note, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining over 0.2% on Friday, reflecting improved risk sentiment.

In the currency markets, EUR/USD remained stable near 1.0915 in New York afternoon trading, within a narrow range of 1.0932-1.0909. The pair's volatility was limited by in-line German inflation data and a slight dip in the French unemployment rate. EUR/USD faces resistance at Tuesday's high of 1.0963 and Monday's flash high of 1.1009, with traders closely monitoring these levels. USD/JPY, after eyeing Wednesday's pullback high of 147.94, traded slightly lower to end the North American session at 147.62, down 0.35% as U.S. Treasury yields declined. The pair remained within a 147.83-146.27 range on Friday, with resistance holding firm at Tuesday's high, as market participants weigh the narrowing U.S.-Japan rate differentials in anticipation of potential Fed rate cuts starting in September.

GBP/USD experienced a modest rise of 0.07% to 1.2760 in the North American afternoon, peaking at 1.2773 earlier in the session. The pair is hovering near resistance at its 10-DMA of 1.2776, as traders cautiously test the upside after multiple failed attempts below 1.27. The 100-DMA at 1.2686 remains a critical support level that has held on a closing basis. The overall normalization of trading activity following recent volatility and haven flows saw U.S. Treasury yields in the 5-30 year space slip from recent highs, falling by 4-6 basis points, which did not significantly impact risk markets.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin held onto a 1.5% gain, trading at $60.4k, within a range of $62.7k to $59.5k, while Ether rose by 0.6% to $2,587, ending the North American session at the lower end of its $2,723-$2,570 range. The slight retracement in crypto gains reflects the broader trend of risk normalization as markets digest recent movements in yields and adjust to evolving economic conditions.

 

 

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