Macro Outlook

03 مايو 2024

U.S. Dollar Continues Decline Amid Fed Stance and Anticipated Economic Data

Despite some positive U.S. economic indicators on Thursday, the dollar continued its decline, influenced by a less hawkish Federal Reserve meeting outcome and the anticipation of crucial U.S. jobs and ISM data due on Friday.

Japanese Yen Sees Significant Movement Due to Intervention

The yen saw significant movement, presumably due to another round of intervention by Japanese authorities to curb its depreciation, especially following a stark rebound from Wednesday's lows. This intervention aligns with recent strategic actions around key resistance levels, reflecting an ongoing readiness to stabilize the yen against excessive volatility.

Cautious Market Sentiment Ahead of Key Data Releases

Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors looking to Friday's employment and ISM non-manufacturing data for more definitive directional cues, particularly after April's significant currency movements and the reversal of Treasury yield trends initiated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments.

Immediate Market Outlook Hinges on U.S. Labor Market and Service Sector Data

Looking ahead, the immediate market outlook hinges on the upcoming U.S. labor market and service sector data, which are expected to provide deeper insights into the economic backdrop influencing the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

EUR/USD Recovers Amid Treasury Yield Retreat

In the currency landscape, the EUR/USD managed to recover from its losses, benefitting from a retreat in Treasury yields which followed their brief spike. The euro remains bound within a tight trading range around the 1.07 level, reflecting ongoing market adjustments to fluctuating U.S. economic indicators and shifting expectations for Eurozone monetary policy.

ECB Expected to Implement Rate Cuts Starting from June

The ECB is now seen as more likely to implement rate cuts starting from their June meeting, with significant easing expected by year-end.

Pound Finds Support Amid Recalibration of Monetary Easing Expectations

Meanwhile, the pound found some support from its recent lows, with market pricing suggesting the first Bank of England rate cut could occur in August, amid a broader recalibration of expectations for monetary easing across major economies.