Dollar Retreats as Economic Indicators Soften

16 مايو 2025

 

The dollar weakened sharply on Thursday, pressured by declining Treasury yields after U.S. producer prices fell in April and retail sales disappointed. The 2-year Treasury yield dipped below 4%, reflecting investor bets on more accommodative Fed policy, especially after Chair Jerome Powell urged a cautious reassessment of inflation and employment conditions. Equities rose, with the S&P 500 hitting two-month highs ahead of Friday’s key consumer sentiment release.

Global Sentiment Mixed Amid Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Oil prices fell 2.2% amid speculation of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement potentially boosting crude supplies. Walmart warned it would soon pass tariff-driven costs onto consumers. Tensions rose between the U.S. and Mexico over proposed taxes on remittances, though Mexico’s central bank still cut rates from 9% to 8.5%, signaling cautious inflation optimism.

EUR/USD Holds Steady; EUR/CHF Weakens

EUR/USD was little changed after earlier gains driven by soft U.S. data. The pair remained technically supported near 1.1147, bolstered by bullish technical signals and options sentiment. EUR/CHF, however, dropped 0.6% after stronger-than-expected Swiss economic data highlighted regional divergences.

Sterling Firms on Positive UK GDP Data

GBP/USD edged higher near 1.33, supported by robust UK GDP growth of 0.2% in March. Bullish options positioning in sterling remained strong, underpinning cautious optimism despite broader market uncertainties.

USD/JPY Falls Amid Lower Yields and Oil Prices

USD/JPY declined for a third consecutive session, pressured by lower U.S. yields and softer oil prices. Key technical support around 145.35 is in focus, with resistance seen in the Ichimoku cloud region at 147.42-149.95 ahead of critical Japanese GDP data due Friday.

Commodities Gain on Weaker Dollar

Gold prices rose 1.39%, and copper advanced nearly 0.9%, benefiting from a softer dollar and cautious optimism about global economic conditions.

Market Snapshot:

  • EUR/USD flat
  • GBP/USD moderately higher
  • USD/JPY lower for third day
  • Gold and copper prices stronger
  • Dollar index notably weaker