EUR/USD in a Bearish range, waiting on ECB Decision and US CPI news, key range test at the 1.07643
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at the level of 1.07465.
The upcoming Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate and ECB Interest Rate Decision are significant events. The previous deposit facility rate stood at 3.75%, while the main refinancing rate was 4.25%. Market consensus suggests that these rates will remain unchanged at 3.75% and 4.25%, respectively. If the ECB confirms these expectations, the impact on EUR/USD may be limited. However, any unexpected moves, such as rate hikes, could strengthen the Euro (EUR) and lead to EUR/USD appreciation. Conversely, rate cuts or dovish guidance might weaken the EUR and result in EUR/USD depreciation. Turning to the USA, the CPI and Inflation Rate YoY are vital indicators. The previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 305.691, with a YoY inflation rate of 3.20%. Market consensus anticipates a CPI of 306.987 and a YoY inflation rate of 3.60%. If these figures align with expectations, the effect on the US dollar (USD) may be limited. However, higher-than-expected inflation figures could strengthen the USD, potentially leading to EUR/USD depreciation. Conversely, lower-than-expected inflation may weaken the USD and support EUR/USD.
The market is positioned below both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. This indicates a short-term bearish sentiment in the market. Moving averages are widely used technical indicators to gauge the direction of price trends.
Scenario 1 (Bullish):
- The first bullish scenario suggests that the price may continue to rise and potentially test the 1.07550 level.
- Following this, there could be further upward movement to test the 1.07656 level.
- If the bullish momentum persists, the price might aim for the 1.07794 level, which could be a strong bullish signal.
- Successful tests of these levels could lead to even higher levels at 1.07943 and 1.08085, which are the topmost resistance levels
Scenario 2 (Bearish):
- Alternatively, the price could decline from the current level and test the 1.07273 support level.
- If the bearish sentiment continues, there could be further downward movement, potentially testing the levels at 1.06889.
The overall momentum for the market is currently in a bearish range zone, indicating a bearish sentiment. This means that the market has a tendency to move lower in the short term.
The The market is expected to range in the short term between 1.06700 (support level) and 1.08459 (potential resistance level). Range trading refers to a market condition where the price moves within a defined range, and traders typically look for opportunities to buy at the support level and sell at the resistance level.
Key Levels to watch are 1.07273,1.08231,1.06700,1.06889,1.07943