USD/JPY’s four-day bull run has paused, with muted volatility and tight ranges highlighting the market’s reluctance to challenge the 150 barrier. The pair remains firmly anchored within the 146–149 band, established since July’s U.S.–Japan trade agreement.
Macro Backdrop
- Fed Policy: Last week’s hawkish cut squeezed out some shorts, producing a bullish candle around 147. Fed officials Bostic and Musalem confirmed a gradual easing path, lending dollar support.
- Positioning: CFTC data shows yen longs have fallen to their lowest since February, underscoring waning bullish yen sentiment.
- Event Risks: Flash PMIs, Tokyo CPI, and jobless claims later this week will provide directional cues.
Technical Landscape
- Support:
- 147.91 – cloud top pivot, acting as near-term anchor.
- 147.52–147.63 – 21- and 55-DMA cluster.
- 146.80 – cloud base, defining the lower band.
- Resistance:
- 148.50 – upper Bollinger Band.
- 148.62 – 200-DMA (major pivot).
- 149.13 – Sept 3 high; above here reopens 150 test.
- Indicators: Bollinger Bands remain compressed, signaling impending volatility expansion. RSI holds mid-range, confirming neutral momentum.
Strategy View
Until Powell’s commentary or new data surprises, USD/JPY is likely to hover near 147.90–148.00. Upside requires a daily close above the 200-DMA at 148.62 to attract fresh buying interest. Downside is contained by the Ichimoku cloud and clustered moving average support.